Scenario-Based Waste Generation Estimation and Bin Capacity Evaluation from Visitor Patterns: Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis Tests at Alun-Alun Timur, Depok

Abstract

This study estimates visitor-related waste generation and evaluates stream-specific bin capacity at Alun-Alun Timur, Depok. Daily visitor records for 2025 and January–March 2026 were validated and connected to a peak-event waste scenario and bin inventory. Mann–Whitney tests compared weekdays with weekends and matched first-quarter periods. Kruskal–Wallis tests compared operating days and months, followed by Dunn–Bonferroni tests and effect sizes. Waste volume, utilization, deficits, and ±20% sensitivity scenarios were then calculated by waste stream. The dataset contained 382 valid operating days. Weekend attendance exceeded weekday attendance in 2025 (U = 18,479; p < 0.001; r = 0.785) and 2026 Q1 (U = 1,004; p < 0.001; r = 0.575). Operating-day distributions differed in both periods, whereas 2025 Q1 and 2026 Q1 were similar (p = 0.913). Under the base peak scenario, organic and inorganic utilization reached 119% and 400%, requiring 120 L and 750 L of additional capacity; mixed-bin utilization was 14%. The inorganic stream remained above capacity under every sensitivity scenario. Waste coefficients were calibrated from one documented event rather than repeated daily weighing, so results represent planning estimates. The results support weekend inspections, temporary separated-bin deployment, and stream-specific collection schedules. The study combines nonparametric visitor-pattern inference, uncertainty-aware waste estimation, and capacity-deficit rules for a public recreational facility.